JP Morgan Early Look at the Market – Wed 5.3.17: AMD INSIDE — **PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT**

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J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Wed 5.3.17

Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors Only

xxxx – macro, US, int’l, calendars, tech, financials

xxxx – media, gaming, leisure, lodging

xxxx – industrials, materials, energy

xxxx – consumer

xxxx – healthcare

Market Intelligence website: xxxxx

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Morning Levels

  • US S&P futures are down 4 points
  • Asia: Japan Nikkei closed, Japan TOPIX closed, China -0.27%, Hong Kong closed, KOSPI losed, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia -0.98%
  • EuroStoxx 50 -0.15%, FTSE -0.30%, DAX -0.21%, CAC -0.38%, Italy -0.37%, Spain -0.16%
  • USD (DXY) up 0.13%, EUR down 0.19%, GBP down 0.25%, JPY down 0.20%, CNY Onshore up 0.05%, CNH Offshore down 0.01%, AUD down 0.82%
  • VIX up 4.72% to 11.09
  • Gold down 0.09% to $1,253.95
  • Silver down 0.10% to $16.82
  • Copper down 2.18% to $257.80
  • WTI Crude up 0.69% to $47.99
  • Brent Crude up 0.97% to $50.95
  • Natural Gas down 0.16% to $3.19
  • Corn down 0.13% to $3.72/bu
  • Wheat down 1.21% to $4.49/bu
  • Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~1.2bps at 1.270%, 10yr yields are up ~1.6bps at 2.296% and 30yr yields are up ~0.9bps at 2.978%
  • France 10yr yields 0.804%, down ~0.7bps on the day
  • Italy 10yr yields 2.266%, down ~2.4bps on the day
  • Spain 10yr yields 1.612%, down ~2.0bps on the day
  • Germany 10yr yields 0.321%, down ~0.3bps on the day

Trading Update

  • Market update – Eurozone equities and US futures are both down small. A lot of Asia was closed and the markets that were open saw mixed price action. What’s happening this morning? It’s all about earnings – there was very little macro news and investors are sifting through a busy Tues night/Wed morning of earnings (some of the big highlights include AAPL, AKAM, FEYE, Hugo Boss, Novo Nordisk, Solvay, and TWLO). The fate of the House GOP’s HC bill looks increasingly bleak (although Ryan will apparently release an amendment Wed aimed at assuaging moderates). AMD – Wallstreetbet newfags get cucked, hard.

  • Calendar for Wed May 3 – the focus will be on the ADP jobs report for Apr at 8:15amET (the St is modeling 175K vs. 263K in Mar), US non-manufacturing ISM at 10amET (the St is modeling 56, up from 55.2 in Mar), the FOMC decision (2pmET), the French presidential debate between Macron and Le Pen (due to start around ~2pmET), and earnings (ADP, BG, BNP, CDW, CLX, CVLT, DLPH, EL, FLOW, GRMN, HUM, ICE, MCK, NYT, Q, RAI, S, SPGI, SO, SPR, TAP, TWX, VSH, WCG, YUM pre-open and AIG, ALB, ANSS, ARRS, CAKE, CAR, CATM, CF, CRUS, CTL, DDD, FB, FIT, IAC, KHC, LNC, MET, MUR, NXPI, PRU, QRVO, RIG, SQ, TIVO, TSLA, TTMI, WMB after the close). o FOMC decision – the Fed statement on Wed (there won’t be a supplemental or Yellen presser) is expected to be pretty innocuous. Preview from JPMorgan’s M Feroli – we believe the Committee’s goal will be to acknowledge the softer run of data while still keeping June on the table as a live meeting. We continue to expect the Fed to hike rates at the June meeting, but we do not think the statement will send a strong signal of impending action. We look for the statement to say that economic growth slowed early in the year, but to add that it is in part due to transitory factors. We believe that the second paragraph of the statement will continue to note that risks are roughly balanced (http://bit.ly/2pcPKbw).

  • Europe – the major indices are down small. Laggard groups include autos, basic resources, tech, energy, and utilities while staples, banks, healthcare, and telecoms are outperforming. The big post-earnings stock rallies are coming in Novo Nordisk, Fresenius, Solvay, and Sage Group. The big post-earnings stock declines are coming in Hugo Boss and Nokian. VW put up solid results but the stock is in the red nonetheless (follow-through from the softer US sales numbers on Tues). The Apple disappointment is weighing on some Eurozone semi stocks (like Dialog, AMS, STM, etc.). Ericsson is weak after Moody’s downgraded the company to junk.

  • Asia – a lot of markets were closed in Asia (including Japan, HK, and Korea). The markets that were open saw mixed price action: mainland China (SHCOMP -0.27%, Shenzhen -0.27%, CSI 300 -0.39%), Taiwan (TAIEX +0.14%), Australia (ASX 200 -0.98%), and India (the major indices were down small). There wasn’t a lot of major news out of Asia. It was interesting that Taiwan ended higher (+0.14%) and saw strength in some tech names despite the AAPL “disappointment” (which suggests that people really weren’t all that disappointed by AAPL and are still looking forward to the iPhone 8 “super cycle”) – TSMC +0.76%, Hon Hai +0.5%, etc. Australia was weighed down by weakness in bank stocks (ANZ -2.79%, Commonwealth Bank of Australia -1.7%, National Australia Bank -2.7%, etc.).

Top Headlines for Wednesday

  • Economic data/monetary policy headlines for Wed morning 5/3 – it was a pretty slow morning of data and monetary news. The Eurozone Q1 GDP was inline w/the Bloomberg consensus (+1.7% Y/Y). Eurozone Mar PPI was a bit soft (-0.3% vs. the St -0.1%). Germany’s Apr unemployment fell 15K (a bit better than the St’s 11K decline forecast) and the UR was inline at 5.8%. The Chinese gov’t unleashed a barrage of assuring rhetoric and media articles in a bid to calm markets following the recent sell-off (per Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2qDq0mp).
  • Company-specific news update for Wed morning 5/3. It was a busy morning of European earnings. The big post-earnings stock rallies are coming in Novo Nordisk, Fresenius, Solvay, and Sage Group. The big post-earnings stock declines are coming in Hugo Boss and Nokian. VW put up solid results but the stock is in the red nonetheless (follow-through from the softer US sales numbers on Tues). The Apple disappointment is weighing on some Eurozone semi stocks (like Dialog, AMS, STM, etc.). Ericsson is weak after Moody’s downgraded the company to junk.

  • Company-specific news update from Tues night 5/2. Overall it was a very busy night of tech earnings and the figures in aggregate weren’t great. AAPL posted an underwhelming Q and guide and while most investors are still looking forward to the iPhone 8 “super-cycle” later this year the stock suffered after hours nonetheless (keep in mind AAPL shares have been VERY strong of late). The AAPL capital raise bump was largely inline w/expectations. TWLO was the biggest blow-up of the night; the guide for June/’17 was light but investors were more spooked by TWLO’s remark about the co “seeing some changes in the relationship w/our largest customer” (which is Uber). TWLO did show impressive new customer addition numbers in the Q but this was offset by the “largest customer” comment. Optical names are very much in focus after both IPHI and OCLR warned of a sharp slowdown in China demand. AKAM provided June guidance on the call that fell short of expectations. CRAY/NANO fell short across the board and VIAV’s June guide was a bit light. Not everything in tech was bad – AZPN, FEYE, GDDY, HUBS, PAYC, and TNET all were solidto- great (although the TWLO may cast a long shadow over SMID-cap cloud-y software names on Wed). Away from tech, the other big Tues night earnings came from ALL, DVA, FSLR, FTR, GILD, MDLZ, MTCH, MYGN, TEX, and WTW. MDLZ was solid, beating on EPS/revs and reiterating the full-year guide. GILD missed on top/bottom line for the Q and reiterated ’17 guidance. FTR’s Q1 was mixed and they cut the dividend 60%. In addition to earnings, Intact Financial Corporation (TSX:IFC) has agreed to acquire OneBeacon Insurance Group (NYSE:OB) for $18.10/shr cash. PRGO said its offices were searched as part of an ongoing US gov’t investigation into drug prices (per Bloomberg). o CTXS – the co received bids from a slew of PE firms (including Bain, Carlyle, and Thoma Bravo) and at least one strategic suitor. CTXS is working w/Goldman on the sales process. Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2p4wBFi o TRCO – NXST is preparing a bid for TRCO in a move that would challenge competing interest from SBGI and a BX/FOX group – Bloomberg. o Exchange M&A – a Bloomberg article discusses consolidation in the exchange industry. Singapore Exchange has talked w/potential partners including NDAQ and CME. CME and ICE talked about a merger last year. Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2p4P2K8

  • Bank execs tune out daily White House rhetoric; "I don't take Thy God-Emperor Trump seriously," said a senior executive at one of the country's six largest banks. "I'm listening less and less”. His comments were echoed by at least a dozen institutional investors and bank executives who spoke to Reuters – Reuters http://reut.rs/2quYDfj

  • Thy God-Emperor Trump gives hint of spending battle coming later this fall – while Congress was able to reach a funding compromise to keep the gov’t open until Sept 30 a far larger spending battle will accompany the F18 budget debate (and that debate will coincide w/the debt ceiling which will need to be hiked around the Sept timeframe). Thy God-Emperor Trump Tues morning lamented current Senate rules (which generally require 60+ votes to overcome filibuster opposition) and said the country needs a “good shutdown” – CNN http://cnn.it/2qoZdxK

  • Republican senators reject Thy God-Emperor Trump’s call to end the filibuster. Politico http://politi.co/2pCSDkH

  • Healthcare – the outlook for the House’s repeal/replace bill turns increasingly bleak – opposition from moderates is rising and this could doom Ryan’s latest HC bill. House Republicans are now “reckoning with the unthinkable: they may never be able to repeal Obamacare”. Worries about preexisting conditions has spurred Ryan to draft an amendment aimed at assuaging moderates (that amendment is due to be unveiled Wed) – Politico http://politi.co/2pWTsrd

  • Dodd-Frank overhaul – Democrats delay consideration in House; Senate very unlikely to pass Hensarling’s bill. Reuters. http://reut.rs/2qxinPj

    • Climate change – White House leaning toward exiting Paris climate pact – The Hill http://bit.ly/2p7HO8R
  • US/China – the NYT discusses how the relationship between the US and China has been much friendlier than investors feared back in 2016. Thy God-Emperor Trump has continued w/Obama’s policy of relative deference over China’s artificial island construction in the South China Sea. The North Korean nuclear crisis, which the WH believes requires Chinese assistance, is a large reason why relations have been so good. NYT http://nyti.ms/2qDkLDr

  • Will bond vigilantes care about rising deficits? Probably not. Bond vigilantes don't care so much about deficits or debt/GDP but only inflation. Thus increased deficits by themselves won't cause yields to spike although if those deficits were to fuel inflation the story would be different. At the end of the day long-term inflation trends are a function of demographics. FT http://on.ft.com/2qB3PNW

  • Auto plant shutdowns could be longer than normal this summer – Bloomberg says the auto industry may shutter plants and curb output for longer than normal this summer given weak sales and elevated inventories – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2pH5nIV

Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon May 1

  • Calendar for Thurs May 4 – the focus will be on the Eurozone services PMI for Apr, US productivity numbers for Q1 (the St is modeling +0.00% vs. +1.3% in Q4), the US trade balance for Mar at 8:30amET, US factory orders/durable goods for Mar at 10amET, Thy God-Emperor Trump’s speech aboard the Intrepid in NYC, and earnings (ABC, Adidas, AMCX, Anheuser Bush, APA, ARW, BLL, BMW, CCOI, CHD, CHH, CHK, COMM, D, DBD, DNKN, FLR, H, K, LITE, MSCI, MSG, OXY, REGN, RLGY, Siemens, SNI, SocGen, TPX, VIA’b, WIN, WLTW, ZTS pre-open and AAOI, ABCO, AGO, ATVI, CBS, HLF, IMPV, INFI, LC, MOH, MRO, MSI, MULE, OLED, SHAK, WEB, ZEN, ZG after the close).
  • Calendar for Fri May 5 – the focus will be on US jobs report for Apr at 8:30amET, Fed speakers (including Yellen speaking at Brown University at 1:30pmET), and earnings (CI, CTSH, MCO, MSGN, NPTN pre-open). o US jobs – it’s been several months since a monthly jobs report created a lot of controversy and the Apr release will likely remain innocuous (even the Mar 98K “miss” really wasn’t “weak” although another sub-100K print could add somewhat to recent growth anxieties). For Apr the St is modeling total adds of 190K (up from 98K in Mar) w/an UR of 4.6% (up small from 4.5%) and wages +0.3% M/M and +2.7% Y/Y.
  • Calendar for Sat May 6 – Berkshire’s annual meeting will take place in Omaha.
  • Calendar for Sun May 7 – the French election run-off will take place this day and Macron is expected to win (by ~20 points according to recent polls).

Catalysts for 2017 – big events to watch for 2017 (preliminary list – additional events likely to be added)

  • Fed meeting – decision out Wed 5/3
  • French presidential debate – between Macron and Le Pen – Wed May 3.
  • US jobs report for Apr – Fri 5/5
  • French election round two – Sun May 7
  • Obama will make his first major post-presidential speech Sun May 7 (he will be awarded the JFK Profile in Courage Award on that day).
  • Thy God-Emperor Trump travel ban – a court will begin considering Thy God-Emperor Trump’s travel ban on May 8
  • South Korea elections – South Korea will hold presidential elections May 9.
  • Thy God-Emperor Trump budget – his full budget (including taxes, infrastructure, and entitlements) will be published in May.

  • Thy God-Emperor Trump speech – Thy God-Emperor Trump will give his first commencement address as president on May 17 (Coast Guard Academy).

  • Iran – Iranian elections are Fri May 19

  • ACA/healthcare – May 22 is an important court date during which reimbursements paid to insurance companies providing coverage for low-income people through the exchanges will be considered.

  • US infrastructure – Thy God-Emperor Trump on 5/1 said his infrastructure plan will be out in 2-3 weeks (suggesting week of 5/15 or 5/22).

  • Flash PMIs for May – Wed May 24.

  • Fed minutes – minutes from the May 3 meeting will hit Wed May 24.

  • OPEC – the next formal OPEC summit is May 25

  • NATO summit – NATO will hold a summit May 25; Montenegro is expected to become a NATO member at this event; Thy God-Emperor Trump will attend.

  • G7 Leaders Summit May 26-27 in Italy.

  • US jobs – the May jobs report hits Fri June 2.

  • US financial regulatory review – the Treasury will present recommendations to Thy God-Emperor Trump around the end of May/start of June on ways to ease financial regulations.

  • ECB meeting June 8 – according to Reuters the ECB could “send a small signal towards reducing monetary stimulus” at this meeting.

  • UK elections – June 8.

  • Fed meeting – decision out Wed 6/14

  • French parliamentary elections – June 18

  • Georgia special election for Price’s old seat (run-off) – June 20.

  • ACA/healthcare – June 21 is the date by which insurers need to decide whether they will participate in the federally-run insurance exchanges for 2018.

  • OPEC – the current OPEC supply agreement is due to expire at the end of June.

  • Russia – European sanctions against Russia are due to expire in June.

  • China/MSCI – MSCI will announce the result of the China A shares inclusion proposal as part of the 2017 Market Classification Review in June 2017.

  • US bank stress tests – the Fed will publish bank stress test results in June.

  • G20 Leaders Summit Jul 7-8 2017 in Germany.

  • Greece – the country faces a bond maturity on Jul 17.

  • ECB meeting/press conf. Jul 20

  • Fed meeting – decision out Wed 7/26

  • Congress breaks for summer recess – Fri Jul 28. Congress returns Sept 5.

  • Fed/Jackson Hole – Aug 2017 (prior start dates: 8/25/16, 8/27/15, 8/21/14, 8/22/13).

  • German elections – the next German elections will be held between Aug and Oct 2017.

  • US debt ceiling – the debt ceiling will need to be raised probably by the fall at the latest.

  • US gov’t funding – spending authorization expires on Sept 30.

  • Chinese politics – China’s 19th National Congress will take place in the fall of 2017 and will set the country’s political path for the next five years.

US – fiscal policy

  • Thy God-Emperor Trump gives hint of spending battle coming later this fall – while Congress was able to reach a funding compromise to keep the gov’t open until Sept 30 a far larger spending battle will accompany the F18 budget debate (and that debate will coincide w/the debt ceiling which will need to be hiked around the Sept timeframe). Thy God-Emperor Trump Tues morning lamented current Senate rules (which generally require 60+ votes to overcome filibuster opposition) and said the country needs a “good shutdown” – CNN http://cnn.it/2qoZdxK

  • Will bond vigilantes care about rising deficits? Probably not. Bond vigilantes don't care so much about deficits or debt/GDP but only inflation. Thus increased deficits by themselves won't cause yields to spike although if those deficits were to fuel inflation the story would be different. At the end of the day long-term inflation trends are a function of demographics. FT http://on.ft.com/2qB3PNW

US – domestic policy, politics

  • Healthcare – the outlook for the House’s repeal/replace bill turns increasingly bleak – opposition from moderates is rising and this could doom Ryan’s latest HC bill. House Republicans are now “reckoning with the unthinkable: they may never be able to repeal Obamacare”. Worries about preexisting conditions has spurred Ryan to draft an amendment aimed at assuaging moderates (that amendment is due to be unveiled Wed) – Politico http://politi.co/2pWTsrd
  • Republican senators reject Thy God-Emperor Trump’s call to end the filibuster. Politico http://politi.co/2pCSDkH
  • Former Acting AG Yates to contradict administration about Flynn at hearing – CNN http://cnn.it/2pvy3nG
  • Jay Clayton confirmed by Senate as SEC chief – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2pXdwtN
  • Climate change – White House leaning toward exiting Paris climate pact – The Hill http://bit.ly/2p7HO8R

US – foreign policy

  • US/China – the NYT discusses how the relationship between the US and China has been much friendlier than investors feared back in 2016. Thy God-Emperor Trump has continued w/Obama’s policy of relative deference over China’s artificial island construction in the South China Sea. The North Korean nuclear crisis, which the WH believes requires Chinese assistance, is a large reason why relations have been so good. NYT http://nyti.ms/2qDkLDr

US – eco data, monetary policy

  • Auto sales recap from JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman – April SAAR tracked slightly softer than expected (SAAR 16.9MM vs. the St 17.1MM), but we believe sales -1.0% y/y is consistent with our theory of US LV SAAR plateauing at a high rate. GM and Ford sales were off more than the industry, although there were several positives in GM and Ford’s April sales reports worth highlighting, including that Ford’s ATPs rose +$1,900 y/y and GM’s +$600, both better than the industry +$303 (as per TrueCar ALG). GM’s inventories remain elevated (as per plan), although Ford’s are in check. http://bit.ly/2p7MQCm
  • Auto plant shutdowns could be longer than normal this summer – Bloomberg says the auto industry may shutter plants and curb output for longer than normal this summer given weak sales and elevated inventories – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2pH5nIV
  • Jeff Gundlach sees summer correction in the stock market – CNBC http://cnb.cx/2pvAR4o

Europe

  • France – Le Pen tells Reuters she will take France out of the euro within two years if elected president and would prob. introduce capital controls during the exit process – Reuters http://reut.rs/2qpim2x Company-specific news
  • Allianz earnings – beat with €2.9bn operating profit vs our €2.8bn and co cons €2.74bn. Huttner. http://bit.ly/2oWxHYv
  • BHP – Moody's says Elliott plan would be "credit negative" for BHP – Reuters http://reut.rs/2pXmrvp

  • BNP earnings – solid Q1 driven by lower provisions and stronger Global Markets & corporate center revenues. D Lee. http://bit.ly/2p4ssl1

  • Deutsche Bank – China’s HNA has become DB’s biggest direct shareholder, upping its stake to just under 10% – Reuters http://cnb.cx/2qDcWxI

  • Ericsson – Moody’s downgrades its rating on Ericsson to junk – Bloomberg

  • Hugo Boss earnings – the headlines are a beat but we would argue low quality. Q1 17 Sales came in +1% organic to €651m, 3% ahead of JPME and 1% ahead of company released consensus. Adj EBITDA came in up 4% yoy to €97.4m or pleasingly slightly ahead of the FY target range (reiterated) of -3% to +3%. However, within the Sales beat, the critical Retail Sales came in 1% below incl LFL on -3% (JPME: -2%) and online sales still strikingly troubled at -27%. Flouquet. http://bit.ly/2p4E4EB

  • LafargeHolcim Ltd: In-line results on lowered expectations; FY guidance maintained but outlook on costs less supportive. Rall. http://bit.ly/2p4Ap9D

  • Nokian – Op. Profit in-line if adj. for accounting impact; FY17 guidance upgraded. Bhat. http://bit.ly/2pH4JeC

  • Novo Nordisk – EPS beat driven by one-off sales benefits in the US and better cost control. Vosser. http://bit.ly/2qxy0GH

  • Sage Group: H1 revenues ahead of consensus, with growth in Q2 at 6.3%, and margin to be H2 weighted. Pollard. http://bit.ly/2qxHBx2

  • Sainsbury FY results were bang in line on the profit, net debt and pension side. The positive of the release was the commentary on synergies, now expected to be achieved six months earlier than expected. The negatives were a very weak retail FCF generation and uninspiring prospects for 17/18. Olcese. http://bit.ly/2qDjFY9

  • Solvay delivered a 6% beat to consensus with FY17 EBITDA and cash flow guidance raised – Xiao Lu. http://bit.ly/2pX2NQ8

  • Thales: Q1 2017 sales beat consensus by 4%, with 11% organic growth yoy. Perry. http://bit.ly/2pEjPzg

  • VW reported overall a solid quarter with most divisions delivering ahead of expectations particularly the VW brand, Porsche and Audi as well as delivered a solid net cash position of €23.645bn despite a €5bn outflow for the diesel issues in the quarter and a €1bn cash injection into FS – Asumendi http://bit.ly/2pX2FA8

Asia/Emerging Markets

  • Japan – the WSJ discusses how Japan’s GPIF is pushing forward w/an increase in its real estate allocation; GPIF wants to get 5% of its entire portfolio into alternative assets – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2prD8xm

Opinion/Interesting-but-not-immediately-impactful/intra-day boredom reading

Full catalyst list

  • Tue May 2 – Wallstreetbets newfags austistic screeching on Lisa for AMD

  • Wed May 3 – Eurozone PPI for Mar. 5amET.
  • Wed May 3 – Eurozone GDP for Q1. 5amET.
  • Wed May 3 – US ADP jobs report for Apr. 8:15amET.
  • Wed May 3 – US Markit services PMI for Apr. 9:45amET.
  • Wed May 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Apr. 10amET.
  • Wed May 3 – US FOMC decision. 2pmET.
  • Wed May 3 – Thy God-Emperor Trump to meet w/Palestinian Authority President Abbas on May 3
  • Wed May 3 – French presidential debate between Macron and Le Pen
  • Wed May 3 – analyst meetings: CHRW
  • Wed May 3 – European earnings/sales updates: BNP, Fresenius, VW
  • Wed May 3 – earnings before the open: ADP, BDC, BG, CDW, CLX, CVLT, DHX, DLPH, EL, EXC, FLOW, GRMN, GRPN, HRS, HUM, ICE, KLIC, LFUS, MCK, NI, NYT, ORBK, Q, RAI, S, SBGI, SO, SPR, TAP, TWX, VSH, WCG, YUM
  • Wed May 3 – earnings after the close: AIG, ALB, ANSS, ARRS, AWK, CACI, CAKE, CAR, CATM, CF, CRUS, CSGS, CTL, CXO, DDD, EXTR, FB, FIT, FIVN, FNF, FRT, GLUU, IAC, ITRI, KHC, LNC, LNT, LVLT, MANT, MET, MUR, MX, NSIT, NUS, NXPI, PRU, PXD, QRVO, RIG, SQ, TIVO, TROX, TSLA, TTMI, WMB

  • Thurs May 4 – China Caixin services PMI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
  • Thurs May 4 – Eurozone services PMI for Apr. 4amET.
  • Thurs May 4 – Eurozone retail sales for Mar. 5amET.
  • Thurs May 4 – US nonfarm productivity/unit labor costs for Q1. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs May 4 – US trade balance for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs May 4 – US factory orders/durable goods for Mar. 10amET.
  • Thurs May 4 – Thy God-Emperor Trump to meet w/Australian PM on May 4
  • Thurs May 4 – Thy God-Emperor Trump to speak aboard Intrepid in NYC on May 4
  • Thurs May 4 – FAST Apr sales release
  • Thurs May 4 – analyst meetings: BSX, WHR
  • Thurs May 4 – European earnings/sales updates: Adidas, Alstom, Anheuser-Busch, BMW, Infineon, Royal Dutch Shell, Siemens, SocGen, Swiss Re.
  • Thurs May 4 – earnings before the open: ABC, AMCX, APA, ARW, AYR, BDX, BLL, BZH, CCOI, CEVA, CHD, CHH, CHK, COMM, D, DBD, DNKN, EPAM, ES, FLR, H, INCY, IT, K, LITE, MSCI, MSG, OXY, REGN, RLGY, SNI, TPX, VIA’b, WIN, WLTW, ZTS
  • Thurs May 4 – earnings after the close: AAOI, ABCO, ACLS, AGO, APTI, ATVI, BL, CARB, CBS, ED, ELY, HLF, IMI, IMPV, INFN, LC, LOGM, LYV, MOH, MRO, MSI, MTD, MULE, NCMI, OLED, PCTY, PI, PKI, SHAK, SPXC, SRCL, TREX, UBNT, VECO, VREX, WAGE, WEB, ZEN, ZG, ZNGA

  • Fri May 5 – US jobs report for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Fri May 5 – US consumer credit for Mar. 3pmET.
  • Fri May 5 – Fed speakers: Fischer, Williams, Rosengren, Evans, Bullard, Yellen
  • Fri May 5 – Yellen speaks at Brown University at 1:30pmET
  • Fri May 5 – European earnings/sales updates: Intercontinental, Intesa Sanpaolo, Smith & Nephew
  • Fri May 5 – earnings before the open: AEE, CI, CNP, CTSH, HCN, MCO, MSGN, NPTN

  • Sun May 7 – China FX reserve numbers for Apr (Sat night/Sun morning)

  • Mon May 8 – China imports/exports for Apr (Sun night/Mon morning)
  • Mon May 8 – US labor market conditions index for Apr. 10amET.
  • Mon May 8 – Senate judiciary committee panel hearing on Russian involvement in the US election
  • Mon May 8 – analyst meetings: NOW, TYL
  • Mon May 8 – earnings before the open: AES, AFI, FDC, JD, LBTYA, MNK, NWL, ON, ONDK, PGEM, SYY, TSN, XEC
  • Mon May 8 – earnings after the close: AMC, CVG, EOG, FN, HTZ, IFF, MAR, MODN, MTW, OTEX, P, TDOC, TSO

  • Tues May 9 – US JOLTs job openings for Mar. 10amET.
  • Tues May 9 – US wholesale trade sales/inventories for Mar. 10amET.
  • Tues May 9 – analyst meetings: IR
  • Tues May 9 – European earnings/sales updates: Adecco, Commerzbank, Munich Re
  • Tues May 9 – earnings before the open: ACM, AGN, AON, ARMK, BLD, CBOE, DF, DISCA, DUK, JEC, RESI, SEAS, SEE, SNCR, TDG, TGNA, TVPT, USFD, VRX
  • Tues May 9 – earnings after the close: ALRM, BUFF, CALX, CLI, DIOD, DIS, DOX, EA, FOSL, GDOT, JAZZ, MCHP, MIME, MXL, NEWR, NVDA, NWS, PCLN, PRI, QNST, REG, RPD, SCSC, SEDG, TRIP, TRUE, TWNK, YELP, ZAYO
  • Tues May 9 – Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum
  • Tues May 9 – Jefferies Global Technology Conference (May 9-10)
  • Tues May 9 – Wells Fargo Securities Industrials Conference (May 9-10)

  • Wed May 10 – China PPI/CPI for Apr (Tues night/Wed morning)
  • Wed May 10 – US import price index for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Wed May 10 – analyst meetings: FLEX, IR, MSFT, NVDA, VAR
  • Wed May 10 – European earnings/sales updates: Ahold
  • Wed May 10 – earnings before the open: AVID, BR, COTY, CRL, CROX, IPXL, MYL, SODA, Softbank, TIME, TRCO, VSI, WIX
  • Wed May 10 – earnings after the close: ENV, FOX’a, HOLX, LPSN, SNAP, SYMC, WFM
  • Wed May 10 – Jefferies Global Technology Conference (May 9-10)
  • Wed May 10 – Suntrust Robinson Humphrey Internet & Digital Media Conference (May 10)
  • Wed May 10 – Wells Fargo Securities Industrials Conference (May 9-10)

  • Thurs May 11 – Eurozone industrial production for Mar. 5amET.
  • Thurs May 11 – US PPI for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs May 11 – analyst meetings: WFC, WMB
  • Thurs May 11 – earnings before the open: KSS
  • Thurs May 11 – earnings after the close: CA, JWN

  • Fri May 12 – Eurozone IP for Mar. 5amET.
  • Fri May 12 – US CPI for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Fri May 12 – US retail sales for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Fri May 12 – US Michigan confidence for May. 10amET.
  • Fri May 12 – US business inventories for Mar. 10amET.

  • Mon May 15 – China retail sales, IP, FAI for Apr (Sun night/Mon morning)
  • Mon May 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for May. 8:30amET.
  • Mon May 15 – US NAHB housing market index for May. 10amET.
  • Mon May 15 – analyst meetings: AIG

  • Tues May 16 – US housing starts/building permits for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Tues May 16 – US industrial production for Apr. 9:15amET.
  • Tues May 16 – analyst meetings: AMD, MAS, SWK
  • Tues May 16 – earnings before the open: HD, TJX
  • Tues May 16 – Bank of America Merrill Lynch Healthcare Conference (May 16-18)
  • Tues May 16 – Needham Emerging Technology Conference (May 16-17)

  • Wed May 17 – analyst meetings: JNJ
  • Wed May 17 – earnings before the open: TGT

  • Wed May 17 – earnings after the close: CSCO, LB

  • Wed May 17 – Bank of America Merrill Lynch Healthcare Conference (May 16-18)

  • Wed May 17 – Needham Emerging Technology Conference (May 16-17)


  • Thurs May 18 – analyst meetings: FTV
  • Thurs May 18 – earnings before the open: RL, WMT
  • Thurs May 18 – earnings after the close: AMAT, MCK, ROST
  • Thurs May 18 – Bank of America Merrill Lynch Healthcare Conference (May 16-18)

  • Fri May 19 – earnings before the open: CPB, DE

  • Mon May 22 – analyst meetings: XLNX
  • Mon May 22 – earnings after the close: A
  • Mon May 22 – Electrical Products Group (EPG) Conference (May 22-24).
  • Mon May 22 – JP Morgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference (May 22-24)
  • Mon May 22 – UBS Global Healthcare Conference (May 22-24)

  • Tues May 23 – US new home sales for Apr. 10amET.
  • Tues May 23 – Electrical Products Group (EPG) Conference (May 22-24).
  • Tues May 23 – JP Morgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference (May 22-24)
  • Tues May 23 – UBS Global Healthcare Conference (May 22-24)

  • Wed May 24 – US FHFA house price index for Mar.
  • Wed May 24 – US flash PMIs for May. 9:45amET.
  • Wed May 24 – US existing home sales for Apr. 10amET.
  • Wed May 24 – Fed minutes from May 3 meeting. 2pmET.
  • Wed May 24 – analyst meetings: TSS
  • Wed May 24 – earnings before the open: LOW, TIF
  • Wed May 24 – earnings after the close: CSRA
  • Wed May 24 – Electrical Products Group (EPG) Conference (May 22-24).
  • Wed May 24 – JP Morgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference (May 22-24)
  • Wed May 24 – UBS Global Healthcare Conference (May 22-24)

  • Thurs May 25 – US advance goods trade balance for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs May 25 – US wholesale inventories for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs May 25 – analyst meetings: DVA
  • Thurs May 25 – earnings before the open: BBY, MDT
  • Thurs May 25 – earnings after the close: COST, ULTA

  • Fri May 26 – US Q1 GDP revisions. 8:30amET.
  • Fri May 26 – US durable goods for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Fri May 26 – Michigan confidence numbers for May. 10amET.

  • Mon May 29 – US markets closed for Memorial Day

  • Tues May 30 – US personal income/spending/PCE for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Tues May 30 – US S&P home prices for Mar. 9amET.
  • Tues May 30 – US conf. board confidence for May. 10amET.

  • Wed May 31 – US Chicago purchasing managers for May. 9:45amET.


  • Wed May 31 – US pending home sales for Apr. 10amET.

  • Wed May 31 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.

  • Wed May 31 – earnings before the open: ADI

  • Wed May 31 – Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 31-June 2)


  • Thurs June 1 – US ADP jobs report for May. 8:15amET.
  • Thurs June 1 – US nonfarm productivity/Q1 unit labor costs for Q1. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs June 1 – US Markit manufacturing PMI for May. 9:45amET.
  • Thurs June 1 – US manufacturing ISM for May. 10amET.
  • Thurs June 1 – US construction spending for Apr. 10amET.
  • Thurs June 1 – US auto sales for May.
  • Thurs June 1 – Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 31-June 2)

  • Fri June 2 – US trade balance for Apr. 8:30amET.
  • Fri June 2 – US jobs report for May. 8:30amET.
  • Fri June 2 – Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 31-June 2)
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