03-14 17:02 – ‘Dutch General Election 2017 Megathread’ (self.europe) by /u/dvtxc removed from /r/europe within 0-5min
Megadraad / Mégasujet / Megathread
Dutch General Elections 2017 (March 15th )
For prognosis: scroll down
Cycle: every 4 years, unless cabinet "collapses" before
Voting system: Party-list proportional representation
Apportionment method: D'Hondt method (slightly favours larger parties)
Total number of seats: 150
The Netherlands has a multi-party system, with numerous parties, in which usually no one party ever secures an overall majority of votes, so that several parties must cooperate to form a coalition government. Contrary to popular belief, the largest party does not always deliver the Prime Minister, nor does it have to take part in the coalition. Two weeks after the elections, the new parliament will be installed in the upper house (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal). Coalition formation can take much longer. Parties that will try to form a coalition, will hash out a draft coalition agreement or regeerakkoord. Ideally a cabinet should be chosen from parties which together form a majority (76 seats) in the House, in order to pass legislation efficiently.
A record number of 28 parties will take part in the general elections this year, which has not occurred anymore since 1933.
[Example of the voting ballot of 2012 elections with 21 parties]1
[Elaborate explanation of the Dutch political system]2 by u/TonyQuark
VVD | Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)
centre-right to right, economic liberalism, conservative liberalism
[Mark Rutte]3 | Current leading party. Together with D66 part of ALDE in the EP. Supportive of the free market: focusses on tax and allowance reduction and international trade. The party recently stressed the strengthening of the national security. Campaign leader Mark Rutte is currently attempting to win back voters who have defected to the PVV with a though stance on immigration and recently wrote an open letter calling on troublemakers in the society to 'act normal or leave'.
PvdA | Partij van de Arbeid (Labour Party)
centre-left, social democrats
[Lodewijk Asscher]4 | Oldest secular party currently represented. Part of the current coalition with the VVD. Popular support for the PvdA fell into a gradual decline in the recent years and could lose up to 70% of the seats, mainly because of the cooperation with the VVD.
PVV | Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom)
anti-immigration, Euroscepticism, conservative right-wing populism
[Geert Wilders]5 | Started with Geert Wilders' departure from the VVD in September 2004, because of their positive stance towards Turkey's possible accession to the European Union. It technically has Geert Wilders as its sole member, making the party odd in the Dutch parliament. Wilders has made a career of speaking out against the Islamisation of the Netherlands and lives under permanent armed guard because of death threats.
SP | Socialistische Partij (Socialist Party)
left, left-wing populism, soft Euroscepticism
[Emile Roemer]6 | Has roots in the former Dutch Communist Party and Leninist movement. Beside its socialist manifesto, it calls to reintroduce a collective healthcare system and to bring back the retirement age to 65 years. It used to hover around on the sidelines, but its support surged under the current leader Emile Roemer.
CDA | Christen-Democratisch Appèl (Christian Democratic Appeal)
centre to centre-right, christian democracy
[Sybrand van Haersma Buma]7 | Merged from three Christian-democratic parties in the seventies and eighties. The party and its predecessors have been part of almost every coalitions since 1918, though popular support for the CDA has been in a gradual declineThe Bible is seen as a source of inspiration rather than a diktat. Politically, the CDA is viewed as middle of the road and socially conservative
D66 | Democraten 66 (Democrats 66)
broad centrist, liberalism, eurofederalism
[Alexander Pechtold]8 | D66 was independently formed in 1966, describing itself as a progressive, socially liberal party. Unique issues: favours a Federal Europe and abolisment of the monarchy. Although it never had more than 24 seats, it has been part of 5 coalitions since its formation. Current leader Alexander Pechtold has been winning plaudits for his opposition to the rhetoric of anti-Islam MP Geert Wilders.
CU | ChristenUnie (Christian Union)
centre to centre-right, social conservatism, christian democracy, soft-Euroscepticism
[Gert-Jan Segers]9 | Relatively yonug merger (2001). Holds socially conservative positions on issues such as same-sex marriage, abortion and euthanasia, is Eurosceptic, while maintaining progressive stances on economic, immigration and environmental issues.
left, left-wing, green politics, green liberalism
[Jesse Klaver]10 | Merger of Communist Party of the Netherlands, Pacifist Socialist Party and two minor radical parties in 1989. Describes its basic principles as green, social, and tolerant. Strongly gained popular support after electing the new young party leader Jesse Klaver. Has not been part of any coalition since its formation.
SGP | Staatskundig Gereformeerde Partij (Reformed Political Party)
christian right-wing, orthodox protestant conservatism, dominionism
[Kees van der Staaij]11 | Oldest political party in the Netherlands in its current form, and has for its entire existence been in opposition. Holds calvinistic and orthodox social positions and believes women should not play an active role in politics. Mostly a testimonial party and receives most votes from the Dutch 'Bible Belt'.
PvdD | Partij voor de Dieren (Animal Party)
left-wing, environmentalism, animal liberation, green politics
[Marianne Thieme]12 | Founded in 2002. Among its main goals are animal rights and animal welfare, though it claims not to be a single-issue party.
pensioners' interest, populism
[Henk Krol]13 | Founded in 2009. Tries to lower the retirement age to 65 again.
Minor parties without a seat in the last parliament, but have a chance of getting one or two seats this year:
- DENK (THINK / BALANCE in Turkish) multicultural / Muslim immigrant populism
- VNL | Voor Nederland (For the Netherlands) anti-immigration, classical liberalism, Euroscepticism
- PP | Piratenpartij (Pirate Party) digital pirate politics
- FvD | Forum voor Democratie (Forum for Democracy) direct democracy, Euroscepticism, intellectual populism
Ondernemerspartij, Nieuwe Wegen, De Burgerbeweging, Vrijzinnige Partij, GeenPeil, Artikel1, Niet-Stemmers, Libertarische Partij, Lokaal in de kamer, Jezus Leeft, MenS/Basisinkomenpartij/VR, Vrije Democratische Partij
Total number of parties: 28
Partial sources for party descriptions: [*]14
- Immigration and integration: In the light of the recent Mediterranean refugee crisis, anti-immigration voices have strongly gained support in the Netherlands. The biggest anti-immigration party, the PVV, peaked at 25%, corresponding to 38 seats, in the polls during 2015 and 2016. Though the refugee crisis only partially explains the success of these parties. The Netherlands already saw the surge of more conservative right-wing political sounds in the 90s and 00s in the Netherlands, before the economic crisis, the immigration influx across the Mediterranean, and the recent terror attacks. The recent events in Rotterdam and increase in political tensions with Turkey once again revealed that a significant part of the Turkish community is still loyal to their country of origin. The success of the PVV has caused some centre to centre-right parties harden their stances on integration as well to regain lost votes. GroenLinks is a notable exception in this debate, which has said that the Netherlands have the capacity to host more refugees and should immidiately stop the eviction of asylum families, whose children have been brought up in the Netherlands. The PvdA has expressed similar stances on the refugee capacity.
- Moral and national values: This might as an unusual election topic. With more parties toughening their stances on immigration, some parties addressed this topic to differentiate their voice, though the original stress arose from the PVV's focus on the islamisation of the Netherlands. A large number of parties believes that many immigrants, including later generations, lack the support for liberal values the Dutch have been famous for, such as women's emancipation, freedom of religion, and acceptance of gay rights. The VVD has taken this opportunity to formulate their campaign slogan 'act normal'. CDA believes that the detoriated morality of the youth can be given a boost by reintroducing a military or social service. Even the Labour Party (PvdA) has coined the term 'progressive patriotism' in the context of fighting crime rates among youth with an immigrant background. GroenLinks has taken this opportunity to highlight the other side of this topic and said that the Dutch have significantly lost moral values, because of the acceptance of immigrants foreign cultures has been in decline.
- Healthcare funding: The Netherlands saw a very radical change in the healthcare system, when the government abandoned collective short-term health insurance completely in 2006. Since the introduction of the new healthcare system, the Netherlands have risen in most healthcare system comparisons, but some parties indicate that the increased commercialisation has been at the cost of the accessibility to general healthcare. A hot topic is the mandatory policy excess. All insured persons aged 18 years and over pay an annual premium to their health insurer of around €1200. In addition, a policy excess of €385 is paid, in case specialised care is used in that year. This policy excess has been called a fine for being sick by left parties, such as SP and GroenLinks. The VVD, D66 and CDA want to keep this policy excess in place, although the CDA would like to see a decrease in the amount. The most drastic reform proposal comes from the SP, which wants a full reintroduction of the collective healthcare system.
- Defence expenses: With Donald Trump remembering the NATO member states to increase their military spendings, some parties have elevated this topic in their party programmes. The Netherlands have seen serious cuts in the military budget and currently currently spends less than the EU average on military, namely a mere 1.1% of its GDP. Most parties want to increase the military spendings to 2% of the GDP, with the notable exception being GroenLinks, which objects any budget increase and would like to work towards an European common defence force instead. The D66 stresses the necessity to cooperate on European level as well, but wants to see the spendings increased first.
- Euthanasia regulation: The D66 recently caused some upstir by introducing a new euthanasia law, which makes it easier for people to voluntairy choose for euthanasia. Resistance comes mainly from the Christian parties, CDA, ChristenUnie and SGP.
- Weed deregulation/restriction: Currently, weed carries a semi-legal status in the Netherlands, which allows personal use but does not permit the sale. The D66 hopes that introducing licenced marijuana production will remove the grey area between illegal cultivation and licenced cannabis cafes or coffee shops, where small amounts of marijuana can be bought for personal use. Christian parties oppose any further regulation of marijuana and would like to see a further restriction instead. The VVD seems to be split on this topic.
- Climate: The Netherlands still have a very low share of renewable energy. A mere 10% comes from renewable energy sources, whereas the other 90% comes from coal and natural gas sources. Since the Netherlands posseses one of the biggest natural gas reserves of Europe (after Russia and Norway) there has been little incentive to quicken the transition. GroenLinks, D66, Animal Party and to lesser extent ChristenUnie have prioritised climate measures in the part programme. GroenLinks has proposed to most radical changes to reach climate targets, including a consumption tax on plastic packages, meat and CO2 emission. Their most controversial proposal, however, is the introduction of an extra road pricing surcharge, which charges car drivers per kilometer they drive. The surcharge will be made location and time-dependent, with a price increase during rush hour. The proposal faces heavy criticism from VVD and CDA, which states that car drivers cannot demand from their employers to avoid rush hour and that registration, road, and petrol taxes in the Netherlands are already the most expensive in the EU after Denmark. The VVD stresses the insufficiency of the current Dutch road network to handle the traffic load and plans to allocate extra funds for new infrastructure projects.
FIRST PROGNOSIS EXPECTED AT 21:00
NUMBERS BELOW INDICATE YESTERDAY'S POLL
LAST UPDATED AT [xx:xx] RESULTS IN SEATS | TOTAL SEATS: 150 ███ 2017 results (prognosis) ══╝ 2012 results VVD: ██████████████████████████ 26 ════════════════════════════════════════╝ PvdA: ███████████ 11 ═════════════════════════════════════╝ PVV: ██████████████████████ 22 ══════════════╝ SP: ███████████████ 15 ══════════════╝ CDA: ███████████████████ 19 ════════════╝ D66: ██████████████████ 18 ═══════════╝ CU: ██████ 6 ════╝ GL: █████████████████ 17 ═══╝ SGP: ███ 3 ══╝ PvdD: █████ 5 ═╝ 50+: █████ 5 ═╝ DENK: ██ 2 FvD: █ 1 Smallest theoretical majority coalition:  parties Smallest majority coalition, excl. populists:  parties Majority coalitions excl. isolated parties¹ and pole combinations²  VVD, CDA, D66, GL | 80 seats³  VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66, CU | 80 seats  VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66, GL | 91 seats³  VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66, PvdD | 79 seats  VVD, PvdA, CDA, CU, GL | 79 seats³  VVD, PvdA, CDA, GL, PvdD | 78 seats³  VVD, PvdA, D66, CU, GL | 78 seats³  VVD, PvdA, D66, GL, PvdD | 77 seats³  VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL | 86 seats³  VVD, CDA, D66, GL, PvdD | 85 seats³  PvdA, SP, CDA, D66, GL | 80 seats  SP, CDA, D66, CU, GL | 75 seats  VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66, CU, GL | 97 seats³  VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66, CU, PvdD | 85 seats  VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66, GL, PvdD | 96 seats³  VVD, PvdA, CDA, CU, GL, PvdD | 84 seats³  VVD, PvdA, D66, CU, GL, PvdD | 83 seats³  VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL, PvdD | 91 seats³  PvdA, SP, CDA, D66, CU, GL | 86 seats  PvdA, SP, CDA, D66, GL, PvdD | 85 seats  PvdA, CDA, D66, CU, GL, PvdD | 76 seats  SP, CDA, D66, CU, GL, PvdD | 80 seats  VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66, CU, GL, PvdD |102 seats³  PvdA, SP, CDA, D66, CU, GL, PvdD | 91 seats ¹PVV, 50+, DENK ²VVD+SP , D66+SGP , GL+SGP ³VVD+GL is very unlikely. ---- GENERATED AT 09:21:15 ----
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